Despite mounting political pressure to curb population growth, the Federal Government confirmed on 23 October that Australia’s permanent migration program ceiling will remain at 185,000 places in 2025-26—the same level set for the current program year. The composition will continue to prioritise skills (137,100 places), with the family stream capped at 46,000 and the special-eligibility and humanitarian components unchanged.
Officials told journalists the decision followed consultations with state and territory governments, most of which argued that labour shortages persist in health, construction and advanced manufacturing. Treasury modelling suggests that net overseas migration will moderate to around 300,000 in 2026 after peaking above 500,000 in 2023, but abandoning skilled intakes now could undermine productivity and wages growth.
For employers the continuity provides certainty: occupation ceilings and invitation rounds under SkillSelect will follow a similar cadence, and employer-sponsored nomination places will not be rationed. However, the Department of Home Affairs warned that state allocations may still be redistributed—WA’s proposed cut being the first example.
Migration-policy analysts note that keeping the cap steady while tightening integrity measures (such as new risk-ratings for education providers) reflects a ‘quality not quantity’ stance. Businesses seeking to convert temporary staff to permanent residency should monitor Skilled Independent and Employer Nomination Scheme thresholds, which are due to index on 1 July 2026.
Officials told journalists the decision followed consultations with state and territory governments, most of which argued that labour shortages persist in health, construction and advanced manufacturing. Treasury modelling suggests that net overseas migration will moderate to around 300,000 in 2026 after peaking above 500,000 in 2023, but abandoning skilled intakes now could undermine productivity and wages growth.
For employers the continuity provides certainty: occupation ceilings and invitation rounds under SkillSelect will follow a similar cadence, and employer-sponsored nomination places will not be rationed. However, the Department of Home Affairs warned that state allocations may still be redistributed—WA’s proposed cut being the first example.
Migration-policy analysts note that keeping the cap steady while tightening integrity measures (such as new risk-ratings for education providers) reflects a ‘quality not quantity’ stance. Businesses seeking to convert temporary staff to permanent residency should monitor Skilled Independent and Employer Nomination Scheme thresholds, which are due to index on 1 July 2026.
