A Reuters analysis published by SRN News on 24 October 2025 cites Fitch Ratings as concluding that most of the roughly one million Ukrainian war-displaced people residing in Poland will stay permanently, even if a cease-fire is reached. Lead analyst Milan Trajkovic told journalists that the refugees have integrated quickly and are now “critical to Poland’s 3 %-plus growth trajectory.”
Fitch projects GDP expansion of 3 % in 2025 and 2026, pointing to Ukrainians’ contribution to sectors from construction to IT. With unemployment at 3.1 % – the EU’s second-lowest – Poland has little spare domestic labour. The ratings agency therefore expects companies to remain dependent on foreign hires and sees no major wage-inflation risk because refugees are shifting into higher-productivity jobs rather than low-paid roles.
From a mobility perspective the statement is timely. HR teams planning regional head-count should assume continued access to Ukrainian talent but also anticipate government moves to tighten fiscal oversight, as Warsaw seeks to pare its 6.6 % budget deficit. Benefits such as child-allowance eligibility now require employment, and social insurance contributions are being audited more aggressively.
Trajkovic warned that a failure to implement Poland’s fiscal consolidation plan could weigh on the sovereign rating, indirectly affecting the cost of corporate borrowing and relocation budgets. Overall, Fitch’s outlook reinforces the argument for long-term integration initiatives – language training, up-skilling and permanent-residence support – rather than short-term work-permit fixes.
Fitch projects GDP expansion of 3 % in 2025 and 2026, pointing to Ukrainians’ contribution to sectors from construction to IT. With unemployment at 3.1 % – the EU’s second-lowest – Poland has little spare domestic labour. The ratings agency therefore expects companies to remain dependent on foreign hires and sees no major wage-inflation risk because refugees are shifting into higher-productivity jobs rather than low-paid roles.
From a mobility perspective the statement is timely. HR teams planning regional head-count should assume continued access to Ukrainian talent but also anticipate government moves to tighten fiscal oversight, as Warsaw seeks to pare its 6.6 % budget deficit. Benefits such as child-allowance eligibility now require employment, and social insurance contributions are being audited more aggressively.
Trajkovic warned that a failure to implement Poland’s fiscal consolidation plan could weigh on the sovereign rating, indirectly affecting the cost of corporate borrowing and relocation budgets. Overall, Fitch’s outlook reinforces the argument for long-term integration initiatives – language training, up-skilling and permanent-residence support – rather than short-term work-permit fixes.
แหล่งที่มา: SRN News / Reuters
