In a research note highlighted by Better Dwelling on 28 July and circulating widely on 31 July, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal says forthcoming revisions to Statistics Canada’s population estimates could add more than 160,000 people to 2025 totals and 210,000 people to both 2026 and 2027. The under-count stems from a methodology that treats most expired work and study permits as departures, even though many holders switch to new status and remain in Canada. If Tal’s projections are correct, Canada’s reported 55,000-person population decline in Q1 2026 would disappear, exposing a deeper problem: labour-market indicators that rely on population denominators—such as the unemployment rate—may have been artificially low. Adjusting for the missing residents could push the 2025 unemployment rate from 6.8 % to as high as 7.5 %, moving the narrative from a ‘soft landing’ to near-recession. The issue revives calls for a robust exit-tracking system that records when foreign nationals actually leave Canada, rather than inferring departure from permit expiry. The Canada Border Services Agency currently relies on airline manifests and U.S. land-border data, which can lag months. For mobility professionals, the debate matters because population metrics drive everything from housing-allocation models to labour-market impact assessments (LMIAs). If non-permanent residents are systematically under-counted, demand for rental housing and newcomer services is higher than official figures suggest, influencing assignment-cost projections. StatCan says it will publish revised population tables in September. Employers should monitor the release and be prepared for political discussion about renewed immigration caps if the revisions show that temporary-resident numbers remain well above Ottawa’s 5 % population target.
Source: Better Dwelling
