The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has delivered Stage 2 of its landmark review on the new Temporary Shortage List (TSL), publishing a 200-page report on 23 July 2026. The TSL is the post-Brexit successor to the Shortage Occupation List for sub-graduate roles that no longer qualify for the Skilled Worker route. MAC recommends granting 18-month, capped visa access to 28 occupations ranging from electrical-line technicians to microbiology laboratory assistants—out of 82 roles originally in scope. Under the proposed framework, employers would need to submit a “Jobs Plan” showing how they will train UK workers and reduce dependence on migration before sponsorship is allowed. Salary floors are set at the occupational median with no discounts, reflecting the government’s demand that migration be a last resort. MAC calculates that adoption of the list would cut approximately 6,000 work visas over three years, a modest but symbolically important reduction. For businesses this creates both relief and uncertainty. Sectors like advanced manufacturing and battery technology retain access to overseas talent for hard-to-fill roles, but only temporarily and at higher salary thresholds. HR teams must monitor when each occupation’s 18-month window closes and plan local recruitment pipelines accordingly. Companies outside the 28 recommended codes face immediate skills-scarcity pressure and may need to upskill or automate sooner than expected. Politically, the report hands the Home Office a tool that ties migration firmly to the UK Industrial Strategy—supporting growth industries while reducing low-wage inflows. Acceptance is likely, but ministers could trim the list further amid pressure to show headline migration falls. MAC signals that future reviews will be tougher: any occupation reapplying in 2028 must provide evidence that its Jobs Plan delivered real training outcomes. Global-mobility programmes should treat the TSL as a rolling, time-bound pathway. Assignment durations, salary bids and even project bidding strategies will need to map to the list’s sunset dates. Employers who currently rely on RQF 3–5 migrants have just 18 months to demonstrate progress or pivot to a higher-skills hiring model.
