Guardian Australia’s economics editor Patrick Commins warns that proposals from One Nation and the Coalition to push net-overseas-migration (NOM) into negative territory would be unprecedented in peacetime and risk plunging the country into recession. Historical analysis shows Australia has only experienced negative NOM during wars, depressions and COVID-era border closures. Deliberately engineering an outflow—One Nation pledges a three-year NOM of –250 000—would decimate university exports, shrink tax revenues and erase vital labour supply, economists told the paper. Business groups already reliant on temporary migrants for aged-care, agriculture and hospitality staffing say extreme cuts would amplify wage inflation without solving underlying housing constraints. The article argues that reform should focus on rebalancing the uncapped temporary-visa system rather than “slamming on the brakes” across the board. For mobility leaders the takeaway is that even mooted policies can spook assignees and complicate talent forecasts. Companies should monitor political risk in the lead-up to the next election and prepare advocacy briefs underscoring migrants’ economic contributions.
Source: The Guardian
