In a detailed analysis published overnight, the Guardian explores the unprecedented proposals from One Nation and, to a lesser extent, the Coalition, to push Australia’s net-overseas-migration (NOM) into negative territory for several years. Economic historian Mark Cully notes that Australia has only recorded negative NOM during wars, pandemics or deep recessions – never by political design. Driving the figure below zero on purpose, he argues, would almost certainly tip the country into a prolonged downturn because universities, construction and regional economies rely heavily on temporary migrants. Business groups echo those concerns. A 2021 Treasury paper estimated each skilled migrant delivers a lifetime fiscal benefit of A$198,000, while the average Australian represents a net fiscal cost of A$85,000; slashing visas therefore erodes revenue just as demographic ageing accelerates spending. Regional employers told the paper they already face acute labour shortages in health care and hospitality, warning the economy “would be poorer” if backpacker and graduate intakes are cut further. The article also points out that a decade of policy drift has allowed the uncapped temporary-visa system to balloon. Temporary migrants (excluding New Zealanders and tourists) now equal 6.6 % of the population, more than double the share in 2011. Experts say the real reform task is to re-balance temporary and permanent programs – not to “slam on the brakes”. For mobility managers the message is clear: dramatic cuts or reversals in migration would tighten the labour market, push up assignment costs and undermine Australia’s reputation as a regional talent hub. Companies should engage with industry associations now to quantify the economic risks and advocate for evidence-based, sector-specific visa settings.
Source: The Guardian
