As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz enters its third week, aviation insiders are warning of knock-on effects for Irish travellers. Lufthansa has already cancelled 20,000 European flights—including its Frankfurt–Cork service—while Aer Lingus quietly dropped two per cent of its summer programme, affecting some 23,000 passengers. Analysts interviewed by The Irish Times on 25 April say carriers exposed to spot fuel prices may tighten capacity further if oil exceeds $120 a barrel. Irish entrepreneur Ulick McEvaddy compared the situation to the 1970s energy crisis, citing limited alternatives should the Red Sea also be disrupted. Although Ryanair and Aer Lingus have hedged 80 per cent and 62 per cent of their 2026 fuel needs respectively, ancillary surcharges are creeping in across transatlantic markets—Air France now adds €50-€200 per leg. For mobility programmes the implications are twofold. First, expect higher airfares and tighter change-fee rules as airlines protect yields; second, be prepared for rolling cancellations announced with only days’ notice. TMCs recommend holding refundable hotel rooms until 72 hours pre-departure and factoring extra lay-over time for long-haul staff with onward European connections. Policy makers in Dublin and Brussels have so far ruled out releasing strategic fuel reserves for aviation, arguing that supply, not stock, is the constraint. Freight forwarders are exploring ‘tankering’—uplifting extra fuel at less-affected airports such as Shannon—to keep high-value pharma exports moving, but that option is limited by payload penalties on long-range routes. Companies should review crisis-response plans: designate alternative airlines on key corridors, negotiate flexible ticketing clauses, and brief travelling executives on reimbursement limits if trips are postponed. The next IATA fuel-price update is due on 2 May and will likely dictate whether surcharges harden or ease.
Source: The Irish Times
