Australia’s immigration debate took a dramatic turn overnight after One Nation released a policy that would drive net overseas migration into negative territory for three years and permanently cap the programme at 130,000 places. The party says it will achieve the cut chiefly by limiting new student-visa grants to 100,000 a year (down from about 350,000) and slashing post-study Graduate visas to 20,000. Family members of skilled migrants would also be barred from accompanying primary applicants. Speaking on ABC’s National Forum late on 14 September, Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce said the party would “follow the will of the people, not economists”, even if that meant a net outflow of migrants. Economists and employer groups immediately warned the proposal would shrink the labour force, worsen skills shortages and hit GDP. The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry argued that “across-the-board cuts” would inflict long-term economic damage, while former deputy PM John Anderson noted that high migration had helped Australia avoid recession for three decades. Universities Australia was even blunter. Chief executive Luke Sheehy told the Guardian’s live politics blog that campuses would “shut down” if international student numbers were reduced so sharply. International education is Australia’s fourth-largest export, worth A$48 billion last financial year; regional universities rely on foreign enrolments to fund research infrastructure and scholarships for domestic students. The sector estimates One Nation’s proposal would strip at least A$20 billion a year from the economy and cost more than 130,000 indirect jobs. Politically, the announcement piles pressure on both Labor and the Coalition, which have each promised to bring migration down from the current 300,000 but have yet to release detailed visa-category targets. Analysts say One Nation is seeking to frame the debate ahead of next month’s parliamentary sitting, where the government is expected to unveil long-delayed reforms to the Migration Act and Ministerial Directions 117–120. For global-mobility managers the message is clear: Australia’s visa settings are now a live flash-point. Corporate relocation planners should prepare scenario models that assume materially lower student, graduate and accompanying-family visa quotas from 2027. Businesses that rely on Graduate visa holders for entry-level talent—particularly in IT, engineering and health—should audit workforce pipelines and consider alternative labour-agreement pathways such as DAMAs or Global Talent visas.
Source: ABC News / The Guardian
