Appearing on ABC’s National Forum on 14 September, One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce declared that his party would pursue a three-year period of net-negative migration “regardless of what economists say”, framing the move as a response to housing shortages and voter frustration. The plan would cap student-visa numbers, prevent family members of skilled migrants from joining them in Australia and ultimately reduce net overseas migration by about 750,000 people. Joyce argued that the “will of the people” should trump economic modelling, even after commentators such as George Megalogenis likened the proposal’s impact to the depressions of the 1890s and 1930s. Historical data show Australia has recorded net migration outflows only four times, each during severe economic or wartime downturns, underscoring the radical nature of the proposal. Business groups, universities and state governments quickly warned that slashing temporary and family visas would exacerbate skills shortages in construction, health and aged care – sectors already flagged as critical under Ministerial Direction 119. University Australia estimates international education exports would fall by AUD 7 billion annually if the cap on student visas is implemented. From a global-mobility perspective, the most immediate risk is uncertainty. Multinationals with large graduate or intra-company transferee pipelines could see allocations cut mid-cycle, while employees on provisional skilled visas may be unable to reunite with spouses or children. Immigration lawyers suggest pre-lodging family-stream applications before any legislative change and building contingencies into talent-acquisition plans. The major parties have yet to release formal alternatives, but both Labor and the Coalition have signalled they will also tighten migration settings. Mobility managers should expect further policy volatility in the lead-up to the 2027 election and may need to increase use of Labour-Agreement or DAMA pathways to secure critical staff.
Source: ABC News
