Credit-rating agencies S&P Global Ratings and Fitch cautioned on 8 October that Spain’s medium-term growth prospects hinge partly on continued positive net migration. In separate reports assessing political risk ahead of the 29 November election, both agencies said a potential PP-Vox coalition could adopt tougher immigration policies that would “dampen labour-force expansion” and slow fiscal consolidation. S&P noted that immigrants accounted for 47 % of real GDP growth between 2022 and 2025, underpinning tax revenues and moderating Spain’s ageing-population drag. Fitch likewise highlighted that restrictive visa quotas could exacerbate skills shortages in hospitality, construction and IT—sectors already experiencing vacancy rates above 5 %. For corporate mobility managers, the warnings reinforce the strategic value of Spain’s relatively flexible work-authorisation schemes—such as the Highly Qualified Professional permit and the digital-nomad visa—both recently streamlined. Any reversal could lengthen processing times and raise salary thresholds. Bond markets reacted mildly, but policymakers took note; acting Economy Minister Nadia Calviño pledged to “keep Spain open for talent” regardless of the election outcome. Companies planning 2027 expansion projects may wish to finalise sponsorship pipelines before new budgets are negotiated in early 2027.
Source: Cinco Días / El País
