Hong Kong retailers are forecasting year-on-year sales growth of 10–15 per cent during National Day Golden Week, but trade associations warn that actual gains may be “far more modest” once cross-border outbound spending by locals is factored in, the South China Morning Post reported on 1 October. The Hong Kong Retail Management Association said footfall counters were up compared with 2025, yet average transaction values remained flat amid cautious consumer sentiment and price-matching by mainland e-commerce sites. Jewellery chains reported brisk business in small-ticket items—such as 5-gram gold bars popular as gifts—but fewer high-carat diamond sales to tour groups than pre-pandemic peaks. For mobility professionals overseeing short-term assignments, the subdued outlook could translate into more competitive corporate hotel rates after the holiday. Several four- and five-star properties have already released flash sales for stays from 9 October onward, anticipating a post-Golden Week dip. Analysts also note that the slower-than-expected retail recovery may prompt policymakers to expand the visa-free Individual Visit Scheme to additional mainland cities, a move that would widen the talent pool for companies hiring cross-border commuters. In the meantime, landlords along Canton Road are experimenting with pop-up stores and experiential marketing—such as mini-e-sports arenas—to capture younger mainland visitors who prioritise entertainment over luxury shopping.
Source: South China Morning Post
