Study quantifies 350,000 irregular entries to Spain’s southern enclaves since 1994

A new demographic report released on 22 July by think-tank CEU CEFAS calculates that more than 350,000 migrants entered Spain irregularly through the Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla over the last three decades. Using data from the National Statistics Institute, Eurostat and the Ministry of the Interior, the authors trace two distinct patterns: maritime arrivals to the Canaries – over half of which occurred in the five years 2021-2025 – and predominantly land crossings into the two North African enclaves. The findings land as Interior officials finalise next year’s staffing plan for Frontex’s ‘Contingent 5’, which Spain will lead from mid-2027. For relocation and travel-risk teams, the numbers underscore that Spain’s external borders remain under pressure and that sudden surges can translate into airport or port checks well inside the mainland, delaying cargo crew joiners and project engineers flying on short notice. The study also highlights demographic imbalances. The Canary Islands now depend on net immigration for population growth, with fertility at 0.78 births per Spanish-born woman – the lowest among Europe’s 242 NUTS-3 regions. Conversely Ceuta and Melilla have Spain’s youngest populations but the highest unemployment. Policy analysts predict that these trends will amplify Madrid’s push for skills-based immigration pathways and targeted regional incentives. Corporate implication: companies operating in ship-repair hubs such as Las Palmas should anticipate continued humanitarian operations that can strain accommodation markets at short notice. Including alternative lodging clauses in assignment budgets and monitoring local authorities’ use of hotels for reception purposes can mitigate disruption. Although historic in scope, the CEU CEFAS report will feed into the parliamentary review of Spain’s 2024 Aliens Regulation reform scheduled for October. Mobility stakeholders may wish to submit position papers emphasising streamlined work-permit routes to channel irregular arrivals into formal employment.