South Australian Premier warns migration cuts could ‘tank the economy’

Delivering a pointed address to the Sydney Institute, South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas broke party ranks to caution federal colleagues against an escalating political auction to slash migrant intake numbers. Speaking on 21 September, the Labor Premier argued that deep, headline-driven cuts would amount to “national economic self-harm”, depriving Australia of the workers it needs to build homes, care for an ageing population and deliver multi-billion-dollar AUKUS and energy projects. Malinauskas’ intervention comes just days after Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke outlined measures to drive net overseas migration (NOM) down to 245,000 this year and 225,000 by 2028—including tougher rules for international students and working-holiday makers. The federal Opposition and minor parties are promising even steeper reductions, linking intake caps to annual housing starts. The Premier countered that skilled migrants deliver an immediate fiscal dividend—Treasury modelling puts the lifetime net contribution of the average skilled migrant at AU$198,000—and are essential to lifting productivity and innovation. He warned that housing shortfalls cannot be solved by cutting demand alone, because the very trades needed to build additional dwellings arrive through the migration program. For employers, particularly in defence, advanced manufacturing and health, the speech is a rallying point to engage publicly in the migration debate. Mobility teams may need to prepare stronger economic justifications for sponsorships as bipartisan pressure to trim numbers intensifies. The Premier’s remarks also suggest states could push Canberra to preserve, or even expand, state-nominated visa allocations for priority projects. While no immediate policy shift followed the speech, Malinauskas has injected a powerful economic narrative into the national conversation—one that global-mobility professionals can leverage when explaining headcount forecasts and talent shortages to boards and policymakers.