A brand-new impact study commissioned by the Swiss Federal Council and published on 18 September has sent shock-waves through the cross-border business community in Lombardy and Piedmont. The Ecoplan report, summarised on 19 September by the specialist portal Frontaliere Ticino, models a hypothetical Swiss exit from the Schengen/Dublin system. It concludes that systematic passport checks at crossings such as Chiasso-Brogeda, Stabio and Ponte Tresa would create queues totalling 422 000 hours every working day—equivalent to 48 years of lost time, every 24 hours. Annual commuting costs for Italian frontier-workers would rise by €1.1–2.3 billion and up to 60 % of the 87 000 Italian residents currently employed in Switzerland could be forced to relocate or quit their jobs. The study also quantifies wider macro-economic fallout: Swiss GDP would shrink by up to 3.9 %, while per-capita income would dip by CHF 1 300. Tourism losses of CHF 320–810 million and extra asylum-procedure costs of up to CHF 824 million are forecast. Crucially, the report stresses that the savings from halting Schengen budget contributions (about CHF 190 million a year) would cover barely a tenth of the new border management bill, which would include extra guards, new IT systems and upgraded infrastructure. For Italian employers in the Milan-Ticino manufacturing corridor the numbers are alarming. Plant managers already juggling labour shortages in precision-engineering and life-sciences warn that losing thousands of skilled frontier-workers could disrupt production schedules within weeks. Logisticians point out that the A9/A2 motorway carries €90 billion of annual trade; even a two-minute delay per truck would ripple through just-in-time supply chains. HR directors are being urged to stress-test mobility programmes: contingency housing allowances for staff who may have to move across the border, telework clauses to keep Swiss-based contracts compliant with Italian tax rules, and revised shuttle-bus timetables that factor in longer waits at customs. Immigration advisers note that increased reliance on Swiss work permits for fully resident staff would require fresh quotas under the bilateral Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons, adding yet another layer of complexity. Although the scenario is hypothetical—the Swiss government has already recommended rejecting the popular initiative that seeks to re-impose permanent controls—the timing matters. Switzerland holds federal elections in October and border issues rank high in campaign rhetoric. Italian multinationals are therefore following the debate closely and lobbying for a swift, unequivocal recommitment to Schengen.
Source: Frontaliere Ticino
