A new Employment Report from the Institut du Québec, released on February 19, 2026, projects that the province’s working-age population (20-64) will shrink between 2026 and 2029 – the first such decline in more than 100 years. The think-tank attributes the slide to lower permanent-resident targets and a slowdown in non-permanent resident growth, coupled with rapid ageing.
Quebec has capped economic-class immigration at 29,500 admissions for 2026, well below pre-pandemic totals. When combined with a tighter federal cap on study-permit processing, the province expects a marked reduction in fresh labour supply precisely as baby-boomers retire in large numbers.
![Quebec Report Warns Worker Shortages to Intensify as Immigration Levels Dip]()
For employers, the report signals escalating wage pressure and tougher competition for talent, particularly in health care, construction and information technology. Companies relying on intra-company transferees or Global Talent Stream work permits may need to adjust retention strategies, including offering permanent-residence support and French-language training to keep key staff.
The Institut recommends that Quebec revisit its immigration thresholds and accelerate credential recognition to mitigate labour gaps. It also urges firms to automate routine tasks and tap under-represented groups – including immigrants already in the province – to offset demographic drag.
Mobility managers should monitor provincial nomination quotas: a mid-year reallocation of unused spots to employers sponsoring French-speaking candidates could arise if shortages deepen.
Quebec has capped economic-class immigration at 29,500 admissions for 2026, well below pre-pandemic totals. When combined with a tighter federal cap on study-permit processing, the province expects a marked reduction in fresh labour supply precisely as baby-boomers retire in large numbers.
For employers, the report signals escalating wage pressure and tougher competition for talent, particularly in health care, construction and information technology. Companies relying on intra-company transferees or Global Talent Stream work permits may need to adjust retention strategies, including offering permanent-residence support and French-language training to keep key staff.
The Institut recommends that Quebec revisit its immigration thresholds and accelerate credential recognition to mitigate labour gaps. It also urges firms to automate routine tasks and tap under-represented groups – including immigrants already in the province – to offset demographic drag.
Mobility managers should monitor provincial nomination quotas: a mid-year reallocation of unused spots to employers sponsoring French-speaking candidates could arise if shortages deepen.
