Business think-tank warns rapid NOM cuts could hit productivity and regional employers

In an opinion brief published 21 September, the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) argues that the political drive to slash net overseas migration (NOM) is already complicating workforce planning for companies, particularly in regional areas and sectors outside the government’s new priority list. Authored by Fragomen Managing Partner Teresa Liu, the paper notes NOM has fallen from a post-pandemic high of 556,000 in 2023 to 292,100 in the year to March 2026—but says blunt numerical targets risk overlooking acute skills shortages. The analysis pinpoints the now-revoked Ministerial Direction 119 as a cautionary tale: by downgrading offshore skilled applicants, it stranded senior executives and specialists abroad for up to 12 months and left regional aged-care and hospitality operators scrambling. While Directions 121 and 122 rectify some issues, technology and telecoms roles that underpin critical infrastructure remain outside the priority sectors, CEDA warns. For businesses, the briefing recommends scenario-modelling around tighter working-holiday and student-visa rules, intensified competition for onshore talent and potential wage cost pressures. It also calls for evidence-based, sector-specific migration settings to be embedded in the government’s 2027 Budget, rather than headline NOM ceilings. Mobility managers are advised to: (1) audit pipelines for roles that still lack priority under the new Directions, (2) explore regional concessions such as DAMAs, and (3) engage with industry associations to push for a more nuanced visa framework. The paper underscores the reputational risk of processing backflips, urging Canberra to adopt longer policy horizons to maintain Australia’s attractiveness amid global talent shortages.